Flowering Bud Induction Advisory #3
Current Condition: Currently, most of the citrus-producing regions have high flower bud induction, and flower bud differentiation has started. Below is an extensive table of estimated induction hours accumulated around each FAWN station in the region. The next 10 days are forecast to be in the 70s and high 50s, so flower bud differentiation is expected to continue. We anticipate seeing the first wave of bloom in mid-February in central Florida. Given current weather conditions, we expect to see two waves of bloom, or an extended bloom, in most regions.
Season Forecast: This winter and spring (2026) are predicted to bring a weak La Niña, which means Florida will experience warmer-than-normal temperatures and lower-than-normal rainfall. Drought conditions are already evident in many citrus-growing areas and are likely to persist. This makes the season challenging: warm weather will encourage bud break, while drought stress will promote flower induction. Moreover, the intermittent cold spells we are seeing add further complexity by providing additional induction hours. Overall, the greater the fluctuations between warm and cold conditions, the more likely we are to see multiple waves of bloom.
We are in for warm and dry winter weather. Under these conditions, enough hours below 68 °F are likely to accumulate to induce an economic level of flower buds but intermediate warm periods during the winter can lead to multiple flower cohorts and a very prolonged bloom. On the positive side if dry weather prevails during the bloom period there could potentially be lower incidence of postbloom fruit drop.
We are currently working on updating the old DISC website, and we apologize for any inconvenience as it may be intermittently unavailable. In the meantime, a comprehensive list of all FAWN stations along with accumulated induction hours will be published every Monday until the website becomes fully accessible to everyone.
Contact Dr. Tripti Vashisth (tvashisth@ufl.edu) for any questions or concerns.
Flowering related management considerations for HLB-affected trees:
- DO NOT drought stress HLB-affected trees even though drought stress promotes flower induction and suppress vegetative growth, you should not risk current crop due to additional drought stress. Drought stress can exacerbate fruit drop. Daily, lower volume irrigations to minimize fall drought stress is suggested, especially when the weather is warm,
- Flowering enhancing fertilizer to increase the number of flowers are NOT suggested for severely HLB-affected trees as they are very unlikely to benefit because of 2 reasons: (1) HLB-affected trees have more dead wood therefore, there are fewer buds available to become flower, interestingly a good branch of severe HLB trees has same flowering potential as mild HLB trees. So additional flowering promoting fertilizer is not needed. (2) High twig dieback and low fruitlet retention is the main concern with severe HLB trees in regards to fruit set. Only 2% of the total flowers turn into harvestable crop; therefore, pushing trees to flower more is not advisable as that is likely to waste trees’ energy and resources in extra flowers.
- Gibberellic acid suppresses flowering, but the window to apply for GA seems to have passed. DO NOT apply GA for flowering manipulation.
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Date: 05-Jan-2026 |
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|
Location |
Induction Hours |
Level |
Differentiation Started On |
Predicted Bloom Dates |
|
Alachua |
1405 |
Very high |
Dec 12 2025 (1006 i.h.); Dec 23 2025 (1195 i.h.) |
Feb 20 2026; Mar 03 2026 |
|
Apopka |
1186 |
High |
Dec 13 2025 (822 i.h.); |
Feb 17 2026; Mar 02 2026 |
|
Arcadia |
1015 |
High |
Dec 13 2025 (689 i.h.); |
Feb 19 2026; Mar 05 2026 |
|
Avalon |
1206 |
Very high |
Dec 11 2025 (816 i.h.); |
Feb 18 2026; Mar 02 2026 |
|
Bapson Park |
1041 |
High |
Dec 14 2025 (726 i.h.) |
Feb 17 2026 |
|
Balm |
1121 |
High |
Dec 13 2025 (787 i.h.); |
Feb 19 2026; Mar 03 2026 |
|
Belle Glade |
778 |
Moderate to High |
|
|
|
Bristol |
1578 |
Very high |
Nov 17 2025 (632 i.h.); |
Jan 31 2026; Mar 01 2026 |
|
Bronson |
1381 |
Very high |
Dec 12 2025 (978 i.h.); |
Feb 21 2026; Mar 03 2026 |
|
Brooksville South |
1276 |
Very high |
Dec 06 2025 (770 i.h.); |
Feb 14 2026; Feb 28 2026 |
|
Carrabelle |
1531 |
Very high |
Dec 19 2025 (1228 i.h.) |
Feb 26 2026 |
|
Citra |
1365 |
Very high |
Dec 13 2025 (980 i.h.); |
Feb 22 2026; Mar 03 2026 |
|
Clweiston |
897 |
Moderate to High |
Dec 17 2025 (636 i.h.) |
Feb 22 2026 |
|
Dade City |
1184 |
High |
Dec 12 2025 (815 i.h.); |
Feb 19 2026; Mar 04 2026 |
|
DeFuniak Springs |
1616 |
Very high |
Nov 15 2025 (639 i.h.); |
Jan 29 2026; Feb 25 2026 |
|
Dover |
1193 |
High |
Dec 12 2025 (827 i.h.); |
Feb 20 2026; Mar 03 2026 |
|
Fort Lauderdale |
466 |
Low to Moderate |
|
|
|
Fort Pierce |
855 |
Moderate to High |
Dec 18 2025 (606 i.h.) |
Feb 23 2026 |
|
Hastings |
1344 |
Very high |
Dec 13 2025 (964 i.h.); |
Feb 21 2026; Mar 03 2026 |
|
Homestead |
673 |
Moderate to High |
|
|
|
Immokalee |
932 |
High |
Dec 15 2025 (646 i.h.) |
Feb 21 2026 |
|
Jay |
1604 |
Very high |
Nov 16 2025 (634 i.h.); |
Jan 29 2026; Feb 26 2026 |
|
Joshua |
1075 |
High |
Dec 11 2025 (720 i.h.); |
Feb 18 2026; Mar 05 2026 |
|
Jupiter |
454 |
Low to Moderate |
|
|
|
Kenansville |
1053 |
High |
Dec 13 2025 (721 i.h.); |
Feb 20 2026, Mar 06 2026 |
|
Lake Alfred |
1137 |
High |
Dec 14 2025 (812 i.h.); |
Feb 19 2026, Mar 04 2026 |
|
Lecanto |
1388 |
Very high |
Dec 02 2025 (797 i.h.); |
Feb 09 2026; Feb 22 2026; Mar 05 2026 |
|
Live Oak |
1514 |
Very high |
Dec 13 2025 (1101 i.h.); Dec 21 2025 (1259 i.h.) |
Feb 20 2026; Mar 01 2026 |
|
Macclenny |
1466 |
Very high |
Dec 16 2025 (1130 i.h.) |
Feb 24 2026 |
|
Marianna |
1562 |
Very high |
Dec 19 2025 (1264 i.h.) |
Feb 26 2026 |
|
Mayo |
1498 |
Very high |
Dec 14 2025 (1120 i.h.) |
Feb 21 2026 |
|
Monticello |
1623 |
Very high |
Nov 15 2025 (639 i.h.); |
Jan 31 2026; Feb 27 2026 |
|
North Port |
1038 |
High |
Dec 13 2025 (714 i.h.); |
Feb 19 2026; Mar 05 2026 |
|
Ocklawaha |
1292 |
Very high |
Dec 11 2025 (878 i.h.); |
Feb 19 2026; Mar 02 2026 |
|
Okahumpka |
1217 |
Very high |
Dec 10 2025 (809 i.h.); |
Feb 19 2026; Mar 03 2026 |
|
Okeechobee |
1050 |
High |
Dec 13 2025 (710 i.h.); |
Feb 20 2026; Mar 06 2026 |
|
Ona |
1119 |
High |
Dec 13 2025 (784 i.h.); |
Feb 20 2026; Mar 05 2026 |
|
Palmdale |
982 |
High |
Dec 12 2025 (644 i.h.); |
Feb 18 2026; Mar 05 2026 |
|
Panama City |
1569 |
Very high |
Dec 18 2025 (1249 i.h.) |
Feb 24 2026 |
|
Pierson |
1369 |
Very high |
Dec 12 2025 (967 i.h.); |
Feb 20 2026; Mar 03 2026 |
|
Poinciana |
1184 |
High |
Dec 12 2025 (820 i.h.); |
Feb 18 2026; Mar 04 2026 |
|
Putnam Hall |
1449 |
Very high |
Dec 13 2025 (1046 i.h.); Dec 23 2025 (1231 i.h.) |
Feb 22 2026; Mar 03 2026 |
|
Quincy |
1598 |
Very high |
Nov 17 2025 (643 i.h.); |
Jan 31 2026; Mar 01 2026 |
|
Sebring |
859 |
Moderate to High |
Dec 18 2025 (618 i.h.) |
Feb 23 2026 |
|
St. Lucie West |
966 |
High |
Dec 13 2025 (646 i.h.); |
Feb 19 2026; Mar 05 2026 |
|
Tiger Creek |
1142 |
High |
Dec 12 2025 (782 i.h.); |
Feb 21 2026; Mar 04 2026 |
|
Umatilla |
1232 |
Very high |
Dec 12 2025 (852 i.h.); |
Feb 18 2026; Mar 03 2026 |
|
Wellington |
605 |
Moderate to High |
|
|
|
Yeehaw Junction |
1093 |
High |
Dec 15 2025 (792 i.h.); |
Feb 22 2026; Mar 06 2026 |